Overview

An updated independent assessment of the Company's contingent and prospective resources on its Kenyan and Ethiopian exploration properties has been completed by Gaffney, Cline & Associates ("Gaffney Cline", or "GCA"). The independent assessment was carried out in accordance with the standards established by the Canadian Securities Administrators in National Instrument 51-101 Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities. The effective date of the report is July 31, 2013.

Given the large quantity of prospects and leads in the Company's portfolio, the following three tables have been prepared for the convenience of readers by Africa Oil. Readers should refer to the tables attached to this News Release, which have been prepared by Gaffney Cline, detailing the contingent oil resources and prospective oil and gas resources by prospect and lead with the associated geological chance of success:

Summary of Contingent Oil Resources1 as of July 31, 2013
Country Licence GROSS Best (2C) Estimate (MMbbl) AOC Working Interest (%) NET Best (2C) Estimate (MMbbl)
Kenya Block 10BB 280 50% 140
Block 13T 87 50% 44
Ethiopia Block 7/82 155 30% 47
Notes:
  1. This summation of resources has been prepared for convenience by the Company and not by Gaffney Cline & Associates.
  2. Gross best estimate (2C) contingent gas resources of 106 BCF (32 BCF Net) not included in table for Blocks 7/8.
Summary of Prospective Oil Resources1 as of July 31, 2013
    UNRISKED   UNRISKED RISKED2
Country Licence GROSS Best Estimate
(MMbbl)
AOC Working Interest
(%)
NET Best Estimate
(MMbbl)
NET Best Estimate (Risked)
(MMbbl)
Kenya Block 9 1,598 50% 799 96
Block 10A 376 30% 113 14
Block 10BA 9,836 50% 4,918 374
Block 10BB 2,364 50% 1,182 302
Block 12A 3,779 20% 756 38
Block 13T 2,174 50% 1,087 382
Ethiopia South Omo 2,641 30% 792 88

Summary of Prospective Gas Resources1 as of July 31, 2013
  UNRISKED   UNRISKED RISKED2
Country Licence GROSS Best Estimate
(BCF)
AOC Working Interest
(%)
NET Best Estimate
(BCF)
NET Best Estimate (Risked)
(BCF)
Kenya Block 9 1,880 50% 940 376
Block 10A 360 30% 108 38
Notes:
  1. This summation of resources has been prepared for convenience by the Company and not by Gaffney, Cline & Associates.
  2. Risked resources have been calculated and summed by the company after risking prospects and leads individually. Geological Chance of success (GCOS) varies with each prospect or lead.
Please click here to view the Gaffney, Cline & Associates assessment of the Company's Contingent and Prospective Resources (July 31, 2013).

South Lokichar Basin: Blocks 10BB and 13T

News release: "Africa Oil Announces Significant Increase 2C Oil Resources" (May 10, 2016)

An independent assessment of the Company's Contingent Resources in the South Lokichar Basin located in Blocks 10BB and 13T in Kenya has been completed by DeGolyer and MacNaughton Canada Limited (“DMCL”).

The estimated gross 2C unrisked resources in the South Lokichar Basin, Kenya have increased by 150 million barrels (or 24%) to 766 million barrels of oil (Development Pending: 754 million barrels and Development Unclarified: 12 million barrels).

Summary of South Lokichar Basin Unrisked 2C Oil Contingent Resources as of December 31, 2015 3
Field Unrisked GROSS 2C Estimate
Millions of barrels
(“mmbo”) 2
AOC Working
Interest
(%) 1
Unrisked NET 2C
Estimate
(mmbo)
Development Pending
Ngamia 296.7 50% 148.3
Amosing 151.1 50% 75.5
Ekales 104.5 50% 52.3
Etom 96.9 50% 48.4
Twiga 86.7 50% 43.3
Agete 17.9 50% 8.9
TOTAL 753.7 50% 376.9
Development Unclarified
Etuko 11.6 50% 5.8
Ewoi 0.6 50% 0.3
TOTAL 12.2 50% 6.1

Notes:

  1. Net Contingent Resources in this table are AOC’s Working Interest fraction of the Gross Field Contingent Resources as of December 31, 2015; they do not represent AOC’s Working Interest following the completion of the farmout to Maersk which was completed in February 2016 or actual Net Entitlement under the terms of the PSC that governs the asset, which would be lower.
  2. “Gross Contingent Resources” are 100% of the volumes estimated to be recoverable from the field in the event that it is developed.
  3. There is uncertainty that the above stated contingent resources will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources.

The effective date of this resource evaluation is December 31, 2015.  Subsequent to this date, AOC completed a farmout transaction with Maersk Olie og Gas A/S (“Maersk”), whereby Maersk acquired 50% of Africa Oil’s interest in Blocks 10BB and 13T, amongst others.  Accordingly, the net contingent resources described below do not represent AOC’s current working interest of 25% in these blocks nor its actual Net Entitlement volumes under the terms of the Production Sharing Contracts (“PSCs”) that governs the asset, which would be lower.

The independent assessment of the Company’s Contingent Resources in the South Lokichar Basin located in Blocks 10BB and 13T in Kenya has been completed by DMCL in accordance with the standards established by the Canadian Securities Administrators in National Instrument 51-101 Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities with an effective date of December 31, 2015.

New disclosure rules, implemented to NI51-101 to improve quality of disclosure of resources other than reserves, require that an assessment of project maturity and chance of development be included to determine associated risked estimates of Contingent Resources:

Summary of South Lokichar Basin Risked 2C Oil Contingent Resources
as of December 31, 2015
Field Unrisked GROSS 2C Estimate
Millions of barrels
(“mmbo”)
AOC Working Interest
(%)
Chance of Commerciality
(%) 1
Risked NET 2C Estimate
(mmbo)
NI 51-101 Resource Category
Ngamia 296.7 50% 86% 127.6 Development Pending
Amosing 151.1 50% 86% 65.0 Development Pending
Ekales 104.5 50% 86% 44.9 Development Pending
Etom 96.9 50% 86% 41.6 Development Pending
Twiga 86.7 50% 86% 37.3 Development Pending
Agete 17.9 50% 86% 7.7 Development Pending
TOTAL (Development Pending) 753.7     324.1  
Etuko 11.6 50% 50% 2.9 Development Unclarified
Ewoi 0.6 50% 50% 0.1 Development Unclarified
TOTAL (Development Unclarified) 12.2     3.0  

Notes:

  1. In the case of contingent resources, the chance of commerciality is calculated on the chance of development based on all contingencies required for the re-classification of the contingent resources as reserves being resolved.  Assigning a factor of 100% or less to each of the major contingencies provides for a chance of development measurement.  In the case of the combined development of Ngamia, Amosing, Ekales, Etom, Twiga and Agete the chance of commerciality is currently assessed at 86%.
Summary of South Lokichar Basin NET Risked
2C Oil Contingent Resources (Development Pending)
Net Present Value as of December 31, 2015 (US$MM) 1,2,3,4
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
8,266 4,026 2,069 1,083 551

Notes:

  1. An estimate of risked net present value of future net revenue of contingent resources is preliminary in nature and is provided to assist the reader in reaching an opinion on the merit and likelihood of the company proceeding with the required investment.  It includes contingent resources that are considered too uncertain with respect to the chance of development to be classified as reserves.  There is uncertainty that the risked net present value of future net revenue will be realized.
  2. The basis of the calculation is the net present value of future net revenue calculated under the terms of the Block 10BB and Block 13T PSCs using DMCL’s forecast prices with effective date December 31, 2015 less a constant $3/bbl discount to Brent blend.
  3. The 2C development pending case is realized with $4433mm drilling and $2489mm facilities capital expenditure and an average facilities operating cost of $160mm per year.  First oil is delivered in 2021.  Provision is made for abandonment expenditure of $733mm. (all 2016$). 
  4. Economic evaluation excludes Etuko and Ewoi fields (development unclarified).
Summary of South Lokichar Basin Risked and Unrisked Contingent Oil Resources as of December 31, 2015 1
  GROSS Unrisked Contingent Resources
(mmbo)
GROSS Risked Contingent Resources
(mmbo)
NET Risked Contingent Resources
(mmbo)
Low (1C) Estimate 205 176 88
Best (2C) Estimate 754 648 324
High (3C) Estimate 1,630 1,402 701

Notes:

  1. Summary table excludes Etuko and Ewoi fields (development unclarified)